An Analysis of the unfolding ugly war preparations of the Eritrean dictator and his Ethiopian counterpart, Abiy Ahmed, aimed at subduing Tigray and its people!
Flashback November 23, 2019
Drs. Tsegezab Gebregergis
These days some Eritrean news outlets are claiming that the Eritrean dictator is very busy training some 10.000 Ethiopian army personnel in Gergera, near the town of Dekemhare in Eritrea.
Many observers and analysts are puzzled and perplexed as to why Issayas Afeworki is training a huge Ethiopian army at a point in time when Eritrea and Ethiopia have declared the end of all hostilities between the two countries, signing a joint declaration of peace and friendship on July 8-9 2018. This raises lots of questions and worries for the people of the whole region. Let us see what major questions the unfolding situations in both Eritrea and Ethiopia might trigger – questions that will require corresponding answers and explanations.
- Some Questions
Why and against whom is the Eritrean fascist dictator mobilising and training Ethiopian army personnel in Eritrea? Could it be that he wishes to deploy this force against the oppressed Eritrean people who are on the verge of launching an uprising in their attempt to settle accounts with the tyrannical PFDJ regime? Is there a relationship between the Ethiopian military force being trained in Eritrea and the major political shakeup undertaken by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, aimed at establishing a new political set-up opposed to the TPLF-favouring status quo in Ethiopia?
- Some Probable Answers
Since the emergence of Ahmed as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in April 2018, he and Afeworki, both with internally troubled regimes, have forged an unprincipled relationship and have both designated the TPLF (Woyane) leaders as the prime common enemies of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
It is, therefore, no wonder that Ethiopia, under Ahmed’s rule, has had an inimical relationship with all the high-profile TPLF officials and has cornered them politically and physically in the Tigrian capital of Mekelle. As a result, the TPLF-created Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) is in its final process of cracking and splitting into two irreconcilable political groups that espouse totally different visions and forms of societal administration for multi-national, multi-ethnic, and multi-religious Ethiopia. The political arrangement under which Ethiopian politics and day-to-day affairs will be conducted has now entered its final stage of implementation. In other words, the political objectives of the coming arrangement are to marginalise completely the TPLF and its leaders and to restore the overthrown unitary system of government practised under the ancien regime of Emperor Haile Selassie – a unitary system that will be presided over by the chauvinistic Amhara ruling nation and its oppressive ruling class. This is being done by systematically discarding and uprooting the roots of the ethnic-based federal system which was authored and designed by the Tigrian People’s Liberation Front leadership after the TPLF succeeded in taking power by toppling the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in May 1991.
The Eritrean dictator, Issayas Afeworki, is therefore training the Ethiopian contingent army inside Eritrea at a time when there is a life-and-death struggle for political supremacy between the unitary forces led by Abiy Ahmed and the ethnic-based federalist forces spearheaded by the Tigrai-based TPLF and its various allies living in the peripheral zones of Ethiopia.
Needless to remind readers, the Eritrean dictator is working very hard to make sure, at all costs, that the TPLF will be defeated in the coming military confrontation between the two irreconcilable groups, making Ahmed an absolute dictator in Ethiopia, just as Afeworki is an absolute dictator in Eritrea.
- Reading the Mind of the Eritrean Fascist Dictator
I want to make it absolutely clear to readers of this article that the concluding remarks I am about to make are drawn to a great extent from my reading the mind of the Eritrean fascist dictator and are based on what he has said on different occasions on matters related to the fate of Eritrea and its relations with Ethiopia.
I would like every Eritrean who loves and is prepared to die for, the freedom of his country to understand that the Amhara political elite has always been the fiercest enemies of the emergence of a politically independent Eritrea and Abiy Ahmed is their true representative today.
Indeed, not only were the Amhara political elite engaged, for more than 30 years, in putting military pressure on Eritrea to surrender to the Ethiopian military, but the elite were also very busy – to the extent of visiting Nakfa, the nerve centre during the war for Eritrean independence – convincing Issayas Afeworki to betray the just cause and aspirations of the Eritrean people and to abandon altogether the armed struggle for Eritrean independence: i.e. the very idea of establishing and maintaining a politically independent and sovereign Eritrea. As a means of enticement, the Amhara political elite has even promised to make Afeworki the President of Ethiopia for life – the highest post in the country – as a form of payback for his treasonous act.
In response to the relentless efforts of the Amhara political elite, the Eritrean dictator told the Ethiopian Review editor in 2009 that, as far as he was concerned, in the aftermath of the Woyane defeat, only the sky would be the limit to the unfettered growth of the Eritrean-Ethiopian relationship. Afeworki also invited Ethiopians in the diaspora to spend their vacations in Eritrea and, in the meantime, he suggested and admonished that Eritreans and diaspora Ethiopians should have unrestricted dialogue and interaction.
Therefore, as far as I am concerned, the Eritrean dictator is behind all the ill-intended designs and conspiracies being fomented against the TPLF in Ethiopia. In other words, the ambitious military preparations being made are designed by the Eritrean dictator with the ultimate military and political objective being to overthrow and remove the Woyane leaders from power in Tigrai/Ethiopia. If therefore, the joint military operation to destroy the TPLF from Tigrai militarily is successful, the political dream of the Eritrean dictator is to arrest and transport the top Woyane leaders to Eritrea in chains in order to parade and flog them publicly in the streets of Asmara before whisking them away to the Eritrean gulag, Era-Ero. There, Afeworki will oversee their slow deaths, as is the case with the thousands of imprisoned Eritrean heroes and heroines.
In this context, I believe it is very important to grasp that the mission of the 10,000-strong Ethiopian army contingent being trained by Afeworki’s generals in Eritrea is twofold: the first aim is to deploy them among the Eritrean defence forces and to attack Tigrai from the north, while simultaneously a massive invasion force from Ethiopia proper attacks Tigrai from the south; and in the event of a people’s uprising in Eritrea, the Eritrea-trained Ethiopian army contingent would be deployed among the Eritrean defence forces to quell the uprising in the merciless defence of the Eritrean dictator.
In other words, the military and political objectives of the joint Eritrean/Ethiopian military operation are not limited to defeating Tigrai and its leaders; the plan also envisages bringing Eritrea to its knees, humiliating its people and making Eritrea permanently subordinate to Ethiopia’s, and Ethiopia’s masters’ political and economic interests.
It is, therefore, for these reasons that the Eritrean people cannot afford to watch silently and be indifferent when a political conspiracy is being actively hatched against the people of Tigrai and their leaders by the bloodthirsty Eritrean dictator and the political opportunist, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia.
- Final Concluding Remarks
The Eritrean dictator, and especially the potential Ethiopian dictator, Abiy Ahmed, are presently purchasing huge quantities of sophisticated offensive weapons from France, including missiles that have the capacity to travel and hit targets 6,000 kilometers away. Just so that readers know, these offensive weapons being purchased by Ahmed, the friend of the Eritrean dictator, are identical to those weapons, worth billions of US dollars, purchased by the former Ethiopian military dictator from the Soviet Union. Mengestu Haile Mariam bought those weapons at a time when he was preparing to undertake a massive military invasion of Eritrea. The inevitable question, then, is: does Abiy Ahmed plans to use these latest weapon purchases to disarm and invade Eritrea with the consent of the Eritrean dictator?
With this in mind, I can safely conclude that the Eritrean dictator and the potential Ethiopian dictator, Abiy Ahmed, are planning, once again, to plunge the region into a pool of blood for their diabolical aims. I, therefore, want to remind all concerned, especially those with weapons of destruction at their disposal, that it is important to take the lesson from the past that one group might initiate a war in the hope that they will be victorious over the army of the adversarial country. However, as practice has demonstrated, war does not always follow the path that its generals envisage. Once started, war follows its own laws, independent of the generals who triggered it.
The 1998-2000 Eritrea/Ethiopia war is a good example here. In that conflict, the generals of both countries forecast a quick victory over their adversary. However, once the war started, it followed its own laws and logic, rather than going the way that the generals had planned. Indeed, it turned out that the would-be winners became the losers and the forecast losers emerged as winners, relatively speaking.
The Eritrean dictator and the unprincipled and opportunist Ethiopian Prime Minister are therefore warned not to plunge their people into a war with a double-edged sword and with unknown consequences and repercussions for the entire Horn of Africa and beyond. In any case, the aggressive and destructive forces in the region must understand that, sooner rather than later, they will be held accountable for their criminal actions.
Last, but by no means least, it is important to understand that both dictatorial regimes, in Asmara and Addis Ababa, have covertly and overtly agreed to work together for the complete destruction of the TPLF political leadership. The Ethiopian political opportunist, Abiy Ahmed, and the Eritrean dictator, Issayas Afeworki, are both acting from the false and dangerous belief that, without the complete military and political destruction of the TPLF leadership and without Tigrai being brought under Ahmed’s total control, the secret deals that the two rulers have made over Eritrea cannot be implemented.
It is therefore very important for Eritreans to understand and wake-up that there are no permanent enemies or friends in politics. In other words, it is in the nature of politics that former enemies becoming friends and friends to become enemies. We need therefore to be cautious not to remain frozen in the past when a radical political change has actually taken place in our region.
The pertinent and timely question is thus: what should be the political position of the Eritrean nationalist forces if the Eritrean dictator again ignites war against the Tigrian people and the TPLF?